Team assignment system is clearly RIGGED! (with scientific PROOF)

[Fardin]

Dear RenCorner staff

Sorry in advance, for the clickbaity title, I just thought it would be funny and couldn't resist! xD I don't know, if this was posted in the wrong section, maybe the mods could migrate it to the right spot/section if that's the case?

Anyways, here's the topic: Over the last few years I have noticed, that being assigned to either Nod or GDI at the beginning of games was not 50%. Of course having such a feeling could be very deceiving, so I looked up my data on the ladder and this is what I found:


This is a screenshot of my stats in the global ladder, and as you can see, in 2423 Games I was 1289 times GDI and 1134 times Nod. Now, I understand that there could be some statistical "noise" and some variance, which would be perfectly normal. Being the nerd that I am, I was wondering, if this variance is indeed just by chance, or statistically significant. So I did a statistical test using R and got the results below:



Now It has been a few years since I did some actual statistics xD Maybe @Itai795 could help, or see if what I did was done right (since I know, he is a skillful statistician). But from what I understand, the data clearly shows, that this deviation from 50% is not by chance, but clearly statistically significant. (with a p-value way under 1%). In other words, it is systematic! (and maybe even by design?)
Now, I don't know how this team assignment works at all. Maybe it was done on purpose? Do other people have similar experiences and data? Does staff know, that this happens, or has no one ever noticed? What happens if you change your team, does that still count as one or the other? Of course, many questions remain. But nevertheless, since I spent a few minutes on this, I thought maybe I could also share^^

Anyways, looking forward to some opinions on this.
cheers,
Fardin


P.S. DIE SNIPER DIE!!!!

[MarcPoulet]

Mine is pretty close to 50%. You're just having more GDI by "chance".

[Xylaquin]

46.8% of your games you've been Nod. Close enough lol

This is complete speculation but if it's true what I've heard, it may explain the discrepancy:
- I have heard that, on average, Nod wins more often than GDI
- On joining the server, Renegade puts players into the team with less players
- Since on average, Nod does better and players on GDI are more likely to have left because they're not doing well, you end up being put on GDI more often

[Fardin]

@MarcPoulet That's what I initially thought as well, hence why I did the statistical test. The test basically shows, that it is extremely unlikely that this was caused by chance (which is why the deviation is statistically significant). But it's true, your stats are much closer to 50%.

@Xylaquin huh, very interesting hypothesis! That could indeed be part of the explanation. However, even when I am playing for hours and going from map to map, it seems at the beginning I am assigned to GDI more often. Of course, this I cannot back by data, just the feeling.

[UksRene]

Have you ever switched sides like ILL normally does to join the winning side while losing ?

[tw1x]

The real issue with that data is your .68kd

[Fardin]

@UksRene I do occasionally change teams. most of the times however it's to balance teams. I don't mind joining a losing team, as long as it is fun (I love last stand type of games for example:) So to answer your question: no I don't change to the winning team xD

 

@tw1x xDDDD  I don't care about that at all, I love suicide missions and messing around for the lolz 

Edited December 29, 2025 by Fardin

[UksRene]

Maybe thats part of the cause for not being 50/50 balance?

[Fardin]

4 hours ago, UksRene said:

Maybe thats part of the cause for not being 50/50 balance?

That could indeed be part of the reason, although I doubt that alone would amount for this much deviation. That being said, as I mentioned earlier, I have no idea how these numbers are registered to begin with. Say you join server and are in Nod, that would be +1 for Nod, but now you change to GDI, does it make it +1 GDI as well? Does it subtract the Nod count? Who knows... But that's also why I made this post in the first place, because I thought maybe the mods or developers know more and could explain.

[ExEric3]

There are plenty of aspects which make that stats irrelevant.

• different remix code actually used
• different server side managers used during whole existence of RC
• bot/mods balancig
• one sided custom maps
• sometimes I do co-op events
• !rtc/!swap commands
• bot maintenances/crashes
• possible team selection over WOL/XWIS and also ingame gamespy list if you know how server assign sides

[InspectorGadget]

8 hours ago, tw1x said:

The real issue with that data is your .68kd

no thats not an issue thats a bonus. guy actually plays the game to win instead of jerking off to his k/d

[Fardin]

1 hour ago, ExEric3 said:

There are plenty of aspects which make that stats irrelevant.

• different remix code actually used
• different server side managers used during whole existence of RC
• bot/mods balancig
• one sided custom maps
• !rtc/!swap commands
• bot maintenances/crashes
• possible team selection over WOL/XWIS and also ingame gamespy list if you know how server assign sides

Thanks a lot ExEric! That certainly sheds some light on the matter! (So basically I WAS right, and it IS rigged, is all I heard :p)

30 minutes ago, InspectorGadget said:

no thats not an issue thats a bonus. guy actually plays the game to win instead of jerking off to his k/d

!rec inspector spitting facts
:D

[ExEric3]

10 minutes ago, Fardin said:

Thanks a lot ExEric! That certainly sheds some light on the matter! (So basically I WAS right, and it IS rigged, is all I heard :p)

!rec inspector spitting facts
:D

Definitelly I wouldnt care about it since you have plenty of aspects which kill that stats.

 

[tw1x]

2 hours ago, InspectorGadget said:

no thats not an issue thats a bonus. guy actually plays the game to win instead of jerking off to his k/d

I prefer jerking off to my 1.6 kd. Gives me a reneboner

[Itai795]

Nice interesting work @Fardin.

I'm not an expert statistician XD. But I think your analysis is correct, given you only look at your data. Need to look at other players too, Marc's numbers for example indicate 0.498% chance for GDI with the 95% confidence interval between 0.485-0.511, only "touches" Fardin's interval.

 

On 12/29/2025 at 7:04 AM, Xylaquin said:

46.8% of your games you've been Nod. Close enough lol

This is complete speculation but if it's true what I've heard, it may explain the discrepancy:
- I have heard that, on average, Nod wins more often than GDI
- On joining the server, Renegade puts players into the team with less players
- Since on average, Nod does better and players on GDI are more likely to have left because they're not doing well, you end up being put on GDI more often

These are exactly my thoughts. There must be a systematic bias towards GDI for that low p-value. The bias could be even for Fardin's specifically, as Marc's data is quite even.

Everything else mentioned here can be said to be random towards each team, it doesn't favor GDI, especially not at these odds with so many games played.

[Fardin]

1 hour ago, Itai795 said:

Nice interesting work @Fardin.

I'm not an expert statistician XD. But I think your analysis is correct, given you only look at your data. Need to look at other players too, Marc's numbers for example indicate 0.498% chance for GDI with the 95% confidence interval between 0.485-0.511, only "touches" Fardin's interval.

 

These are exactly my thoughts. There must be a systematic bias towards GDI for that low p-value. The bias could be even for Fardin's specifically, as Marc's data is quite even.

Everything else mentioned here can be said to be random towards each team, it doesn't favor GDI, especially not at these odds with so many games played.

Given the past analyses you did on the general trends on the various maps etc, you are an expert statistician in my book :D Thanks a lot for replying/verifying :)

So basically, sucks to be me I guess? xD I wonder where this bias comes from.
yea we would definitely need some more data. My guess is that would we include all players, that it would eventually even out at 50%. As you said, Marc's data is a nice example for that. But still, sucks that I happen to be one of those gravitated towards GDI apparently xD It's almost as if someone is out to get me, like some kind of conspiracy... 

[Itai795]

19 hours ago, Fardin said:

Given the past analyses you did on the general trends on the various maps etc, you are an expert statistician in my book :D Thanks a lot for replying/verifying :)

So basically, sucks to be me I guess? xD I wonder where this bias comes from.
yea we would definitely need some more data. My guess is that would we include all players, that it would eventually even out at 50%. As you said, Marc's data is a nice example for that. But still, sucks that I happen to be one of those gravitated towards GDI apparently xD It's almost as if someone is out to get me, like some kind of conspiracy... 

lol

It could be your playstyle. Perhaps you play mostly on large games that already started and GDI has more turnover of players, so your chance of joining GDI is higher.

[Xylaquin]

Fardin is it you who always goes "WHY ARE YOU LEAVING" when you see people leaving the server?

My memory is shocking, but if it is/was you, this totally fits in with my theory. It's all conspiracy to mess with your stats! 

[Fardin]

22 hours ago, Itai795 said:

lol

It could be your playstyle. Perhaps you play mostly on large games that already started and GDI has more turnover of players, so your chance of joining GDI is higher.

heh... guess your explanation is more plausible xD

16 hours ago, Xylaquin said:

Fardin is it you who always goes "WHY ARE YOU LEAVING" when you see people leaving the server?

My memory is shocking, but if it is/was you, this totally fits in with my theory. It's all conspiracy to mess with your stats! 

Lol yea that's me: STOP LEAVING WTF?!!?!?!?! - Leaving IS illegal and punishable under law!
omg, now that you meention it: mind = blown

[Forithow]

On 12/29/2025 at 6:04 AM, Xylaquin said:

46.8% of your games you've been Nod. Close enough lol

This is complete speculation but if it's true what I've heard, it may explain the discrepancy:
- I have heard that, on average, Nod wins more often than GDI
- On joining the server, Renegade puts players into the team with less players
- Since on average, Nod does better and players on GDI are more likely to have left because they're not doing well, you end up being put on GDI more often

On average, Nod wins more in Marathon and GDI wins more in AOW which is interesting. I remember when I saw the map statistics that itai made, Field Mara being slightly more Nod sided and Field AOW is slightly more GDI sided as an example. It might've changed since then, not sure

[Itai795]

4 hours ago, Forithow said:

On average, Nod wins more in Marathon and GDI wins more in AOW which is interesting. I remember when I saw the map statistics that itai made, Field Mara being slightly more Nod sided and Field AOW is slightly more GDI sided as an example. It might've changed since then, not sure

I think it was 53-47 for Nod in Mara and 50-50 in AoW. But unfortunately the app is down, there is some bug.